09: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

Written by Dave | 15 December 2009

#23 Stanford Cardinal (8-4) vs Oklahoma Sooners (7-5)

Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, TX

College Football: Thursday December 31, 2009 2PM EST (CBS)

The Line: Oklahoma -8

Stanford brings one of the nations best players to El Paso, Texas to take on the powerful defense of Oklahoma.

Stanford finished the regular season on a high note with a 45-38 win over Notre Dame. Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart had a monster game with 205 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 29 rushing attempts. For good measure Gerhard tossed an 18 yard touchdown pass. The Cardinal defense did get lit up by Jimmy Clausen who threw for 340 yards and five scores. Stanford won four of their last five games and finished in a tie for second place in the PAC-10 final standings.

Oklahoma finished a disapointing regular season with a 27-0 beatdown of in state rival Oklahoma State. The win can be credited to the Sooner defense who held the Cowboys to 109 total yards and threw the shutout. Oklahoma was up and down all season and never put more than two wins together. The defense kept them in every game except the Texas Tech 13-41 disaster.

Stanford is 7-5 against the spread this season while Oklahoma is 4-6-1

Stanford is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games

Oklahoma is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against Pac-10 teams

Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games

Stanford's 10th ranked offense (36.2 ppg) goes up against Oklahoma's 7th ranked defense (13.5 ppg)

Oklahoma's 30th ranked offense (31.1 ppg) matches up against Stanford's 65th ranked defense (26.2 ppg)

Oklahoma did not start out their year with visions of playing in the Sun bowl. Sam Bradford came back for the Sooners to make a run at the Heisman trophy and a national championship. With Bradford's early season injury, Oklahoma has struggled to fill the void and dropped to a mediocre level in the Big 12. Stanford has been consistent all season and rarely blew anyone out, and stayed close in their few losses. With that consistency and their strong finish, the Cardinal are going to be a hand full for the Sooners. Oklahoma may be able to slow down Gerhart, but they won't stop him. The Sooners have been beaten by this spread only once this season, a ten point loss at Oregon State back in early October. An outright Stanford win would seem more likely to me than a Sooner cover.